Following the Labour party conference held in Liverpool last week, Merseyside’s future in both local and national politics is left in a fragmented state. The city, which at the last General Election elected Labour MPs in all five constituencies, has for some time now been one of Labour’s safest bets when coming to elections. However, this looks set to change.
A YouGov poll last week projected at the next national election Labour may struggle. Of the five constituencies in the city, YouGov found a mean average of voter share to be 20.6% Reform support.
However, when balancing this with other parties, the Green Party are set to receive a share of 16.8%. Labour’s own average sits at 38.6%. A general election is four years out, and these predictions do see Labour maintaining their five Liverpool MPs.
Only last week Metro Mayor Steve Rotheram spoke at a fringe event of the Labour Party Conference stating: “Next time we might have a Reform Metro Mayor.” Some critics say the media and politicians are focusing on Reform due to their box office nature giving natural soundbites.
In truth, Liverpool’s associated history with Labour isn’t as tight as one thinks. Dr. David Jeffrey, senior lecturer of British politics shows a more fragmented picture: “People’s political memories get shorter. Liverpool has been dominated by Labour since 2010 but from 1998 to 2010 it was a Lib Dem council. I don’t want to overstate the idea that Liverpool isn’t Labour. It has had a majority of Labour MPs since 1964, on a local level, since 1972 Labour has run the city for around 35 of 50 years. They are the strongest party here.”
Dr. Jeffrey pointed to more astute views, associating the Brexit referendum with ‘people in this city who don’t really have a voice’. The referendum saw 42% of the city vote to leave the EU, ultimately seeing local defeat but national victory. Given the Lib Dems, Greens, and Labour were pro remain, and the Tory Party having little to no voice in the city, lots of voters have become disassociated with politics.
Around 2015 UKIP were Liverpool’s third largest party, but with Britain’s democratic system of first past the post, won no seats in Parliament. Dr. Jeffrey believes the splintered picture is not just a current one: “These things have been bubbling away, and now with Reform and Labour’s weakness it is providing an outlet for this to kind of come to the fore.”
The Lib Dems once strong in Liverpool, were not included in YouGov statistics, however they too have large plans for Merseyside. Ex Lord Mayor of Liverpool, Lib Dem Cllr. Richard Kemp is clear of their mindset: “[We want] Control or leadership of Liverpool Council in 2027. Since 1973 the city has either been run by Labour or the Liberals/Lib Dems. Labour are toast in this city, and the Lib Dems are in the process of adopting our first 40 candidates to replace them.”
The 2010 government coalition with the Conservative Party may hamper the party still seeking to rehabilitate their image. The statistics show Reform gaining significantly but Kemp thinks otherwise: “Reform will do well over the next few days, but they cannot deliver because they have nothing to deliver. Extremist’s parties’ splinter and then splinter again. At heart most British people are far from extreme, decent and generous. Those virtues will come to the fore. The danger is what Reform might do before all happens.”
When looking across Merseyside, Kemp may be proven wrong. YouGov’s data (a poll of 130,000 voters) found Reform UK would hold 311 seats in the Commons. While also seeing wins in Southport and both St Helen’s constituencies, while areas of the Wirral will see Reform lose out by margins of less than 5%.
Ultimately, Merseyside’s political future is perhaps more uncertain than ever. Dissatisfaction with Labour is seeing more voices turn to an alternative. Dr. Jeffrey argues the city has become divided. “In the north of the city, whiter working-class areas will probably have Reform as a very healthy second, whereas somewhere like Riverside, which is much younger, with more graduate holders, more migrants, are more likely to go towards the Greens or Lib Dems.”
Labour has a long association with Liverpool, their last four annual conferences have been held here, but now there bodes new challenges in a city that has held their safest seats. Viable challenges have been created and are gaining traction. A general election is four years away, a city council election two. Liverpool’s Labour must find a solution if they are to remain in power.
