Only two years ago, the Labour Party swept to power after 14 years of Conservative rule. However, since then, the party has collapsed in the polls. With the upcoming local elections on May 7th, including on Merseyside, Sir Keir Starmer’s position could not be under more threat.
Four of the six boroughs that make up the Liverpool City Region are up for election. Sefton and St Helens are electing all their councillors, while Halton and Knowsley are electing a third of their councillors respectively.
Liverpool and Wirral are not electing councillors this year, and the LCR mayoralty is not up for election until 2028.
With collapsing polling numbers, a leader under real threat and insurgent forces on the left and the right threatening their voter base, is Labour’s dominance on Merseyside coming to an end?
Dr Paul Anderson, a senior lecturer in International Relations and Politics at Liverpool John Moores University told Mersey News Live: “Labour is under threat from the right, from Reform, and from the Greens on the left.
“Opinion polling, in terms of voting for Labour in 2024, was around 30%, maybe as high as 34% in July 2024. Now its 16%. So, the question is what’s gone wrong?”
For decades now, the Labour Party has had a stranglehold on politics on Merseyside. They hold every single parliamentary seat in the county. They also control Liverpool City Council, St Helens Council, Sefton Council, Knowsley Council, and Halton Council. Wirral Council is under no overall control, with Labour as the largest party.
Yet when asked about the chances of Labour losing control of the councils it holds in Merseyside, Dr Anderson said: “I think it’s a possibility. And I think, perhaps not all of those councils, but certainly Sefton, for example, is a target priority for Reform.”
As if to emphasise the point, only recently did Nigel Farage pay a visit to Sefton on the local election campaign trail.
Ever since coming to power just under two years ago, Sir Keir and the Labour Party have faced ever-diminishing polling numbers across and by-election results that, if replicated nationally, would spell disaster for Labour.
This collapse in polling for Labour, and to a lesser extent the Conservatives, coincides with a rise in support for third parties, particularly the Greens on the left and Reform UK on the right.
Recent polling from YouGov shows Reform in the lead by ten percentage points, and the Greens and Conservatives tied for second on 17% respectively. Labour is in third on 16%.
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 19-20 April 2026
Reform UK: 27% (+3 from 12-13 April)
Greens: 17% (-1)
Conservatives: 17% (-2)
Labour: 16% (-1)
Lib Dems: 14% (+1)
Restore Britain: 3% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Your Party: 0% (=) pic.twitter.com/QDM2M2k87S— YouGov (@YouGov) April 21, 2026
An Electoral Calculus prediction of a general election, based on their poll of polls, show Reform by far the largest party but some way short of a majority, and Labour pushed into fourth place by the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats.
This year, over 5,000 council seats are up for election in England, and of those, Labour is defending 2,196. The elections are expected to be a disaster for Sir Keir Starmer, who will only face increased calls for him to go should results be as bad as expected.
Not only are Labour predicted to lose hundreds of councillors, possibly over a thousand, but they are also predicted to lose the Welsh Senedd.
This would be a major upset, as Wales has been a Labour stronghold for a century, and Labour has controlled the Senedd since it was established in the late 1990s.
Dr Anderson continued: “These are big challenges, I think, for Keir Starmer’s position as leader of the Labour Party and as Prime Minister.
“And I think that’s interesting in terms of looking at Merseyside as a case study, for what’s happening to the Labour Party.”
This set of local elections is a massive opportunity for parties other than Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.
Since the general election, Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has topped most opinion polls. The Greens, led by relatively new leader Zack Polanski, has been consistently rising in the polls.
The Greens are targeting Labour councils all over the country, and in Merseyside, it has been reported that Nigel Farage has made Sefton Council a top target for Reform in this election.
Sefton is a massive borough, stretching from Bootle in the south to the more affluent Formby and Southport in the north. It is also interesting, as unusually every seat this year is up for election, rather than just a third.
This is due to the Local Government Boundary Commission making a series of changes to the ward names and boundaries throughout Sefton. This unusual, all out election presents an opportunity to Farage and Reform.
A full explainer of the Sefton elections can be found here.
Some have said that if the local elections are as bad as feared for Labour, then the position of the PM would become existential.
When asked about this, Dr Anderson said: “I think it will be a significant turning point in his premiership.
“I think what we’re going to see in England is a significant change due to the rise of Reform, which is, of course, a significant electoral threat to Labour.
“But at the same time, potentially the rise of the Greens, so Labour is under threat from the right, from Reform, and from the Greens on the left.”
Click here for a full explainer of the 2026 local elections.
If a general election was held tomorrow, who would you vote for?
— Sam Levine (@SamLevine_20) May 17, 2026
Featured image by Sam Levine, MAJ 25/26.
